Concerns regarding Trump’s Return

  • Implications for Eurasian Geopolitics
    • Trump’s “America First” policies and Republican opposition to foreign commitments could reshape Eurasian geopolitics.
    • Any American military retrenchment from Eurasia would alter the balance of power unfavorably for India.
  • Eurasia without American Security Guarantee
    • Russia and China could exploit divisions among US allies in Eurasia.
    • A nightmare scenario for Russia and China’s neighbors.
  • Unipolar Asia and India
    • India seeks to avoid a unipolar Asia dominated by China.
    • Prefers a multipolar order in Eurasia.
  • Apprehension against Trump
    • Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and impulsive character cause concern.
    • Allies fear less restraint and potential damage to long-standing US alliances.
  • Trump’s Demands for Payment
    • Allies must contribute more to shared security.
    • Trump’s view resonates with a significant section of the Republican Party.
  • Economic Repercussions
    • Trump rejects the assumption of non-reciprocal access to the US market.
    • Targets China and allies with tariffs.
    • Threatens further tariffs on imports into the US.

Why These Developments Should Concern India

  • Security Front
    • India benefits from the US seeking capable partners for regional security.
    • India’s rise in the Eurasian security hierarchy hinges on its military capabilities and willingness to contribute to collective defense.
  • Economic Front
    • India’s protectionist policies have clashed with Trump’s views.
    • Trade negotiations with the Trump Administration were unsuccessful.
    • India-US trade and technology ties hold promise.
    • Delhi needs a new framework for trade cooperation with Washington.


  • Trump’s potential return worries US allies.
  • India is relatively well-positioned on the security front but faces challenges in economic cooperation with the US.
  • A new framework may be necessary for economic and trade relations between India and the US.



India’s Recent Trade Talks and Agreements

  • Overview
    • Modi government actively pursuing trade agreements.
    • Recent agreements with Australia, UAE, ongoing talks with UK and EU, and signing with EFTA.
  • Benefits from EFTA Agreement
    • Aims to increase FDI into India by $50 billion within 10 years, creating one million direct jobs.
    • EFTA investment in 2022 was $10.7 billion.
    • Switzerland is India’s largest trading partner in EFTA.
  • Impact on Trade with EFTA
    • Reduction in tariffs for EFTA nations, elimination of duties on most industrial goods.
    • India offers tariff elimination on 82.7% of its lines, covering 95.3% of EFTA’s exports.
    • Agricultural items excluded from the deal.
    • EFTA offers 100% market access for non-agri products.
    • Services sector inclusion, especially in IT, facilitates movement of skilled personnel.

Way Forward for India

  • Achieving Export Targets
    • Ambitious target of $2 trillion in exports by 2030.
    • Policy actions needed: lowering tariffs, entering deeper FTAs while safeguarding interests.
  • Ensuring Benefits
    • Measures needed to ensure full benefits from trade agreements.
    • Critical for India’s development trajectory.


  • EFTA pact signifies greater openness and readiness for broader, deeper agreements.
  • Sets a benchmark for other nations in trade deals with India.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *