Indian Express Editorial Analysis

Trump 2.0 and the World

Introduction

• Recent U.S. Elections: Strengthened Republicans in Congress; Donald Trump set to become the next U.S. President.

Trump’s Policy Outlook

1. America First

• Focus on U.S. interests in trade, security, and alliances.
• Past Approach:
  • Pressured allies to increase defence spending.
  • Renegotiated trade deals (e.g., NAFTA → USMCA).

2. Tariffs and Trade War

• Proposed 60% tariff on Chinese imports.
• 10-20% tariff on other imports, risking retaliatory measures.
• Previous tariffs targeted Canada, Mexico, and EU.

3. Alliances and Multilateral Institutions

• Skepticism toward NATO, questioning its utility.
• Prioritizes transactional benefits over long-term alliance goals.

4. Environmental Policy

• Likely to repeal Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
• Possible U.S. exit from the Paris Climate Agreement, as in 2017.

Impacts on India

1. India-US Relations

• Strategic Alignment:
  • Trump views India positively; strong personal rapport with PM Modi.
  • Shared views on economic nationalism and China containment.
• Flexibility in India-U.S. relations allows resilience against sudden policy shifts.

2. Trade Dynamics

• Potential friction over tariffs and exports.
• Opportunities in sectors where both nations seek to reduce dependence on China.

Global Implications

1. Middle East

• Israel: Increased military aid and diplomatic backing.
• Iran: Escalation of economic sanctions; covert operations possible.

2. Europe

• Risk of Trump abandoning Ukraine, weakening European resolve.
• Possible outreach to Putin for ceasefire, risking territorial concessions by Ukraine.
• NATO’s credibility undermined; high tariffs on European imports threaten economic security.

3. Indo-Pacific

• China remains primary target for U.S. containment.
• Importance of Quad (India, U.S., Japan, Australia) likely to grow.

India’s Strategic Position

• Indo-Pacific Focus: Alignment with U.S. goals in countering China’s regional dominance.
• Strategic Autonomy: Absence of formal defence treaties allows India flexibility.
• Shared Ideological Goals: Trump and Modi’s alignment could strengthen bilateral ties despite trade disagreements.

Conclusion

• Trump’s second term presents both challenges and opportunities for global actors.
• For India, a combination of strategic alignment, resilience, and shared geopolitical goals positions it as a key partner in the evolving U.S. foreign policy landscape.