The Hindu Newspaper Analysis

West Asia Under Donald Trump

Context

• Joe Biden’s presidency faced a major crisis due to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, disrupting his West Asia strategy.
• Biden aimed to expand Abraham Accords and normalize Saudi-Israel ties, sidelining the Palestinian issue.

Biden’s West Asia Policy Outcomes

• Full U.S. support for Israel’s retaliatory war in Gaza.
• Diplomatic efforts failed to prevent regional escalation.
• Result: 43,000 Palestinian deaths in Gaza (1 year).
• October 1, 2023: Israel’s fourth invasion of Lebanon.
• U.S.-Iran conflict heightened amid rising tensions.
• $17.9 billion in U.S. military aid to Israel since October 2023.

Trump’s Pro-Israel Policy Record

• Embassy moved to Jerusalem (2018).
• Recognition of Israel’s annexation of Golan Heights (2019).
• Withdrew from 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal despite UN compliance.
• Brokered Abraham Accords for Israel-Arab normalization (2020).
• Unveiled Israel-Palestine ‘Peace Plan’ (2020) — rejected by Palestinians.

Trump’s Likely Approach to West Asia

• Strong backing for Israel’s military actions, including wars in Gaza and against Hezbollah.
• Resistance to U.S. involvement in a full-scale regional war due to:
  1. Political pressure from his anti-war base (e.g., VP-elect J.D. Vance critical of Middle East wars).
  2. Strategic focus on China as a primary rival.
  3. Economic concerns: Wider conflict could disrupt Strait of Hormuz, raising oil prices and worsening inflation.

Challenges and Way Forward

• Trump inherits a destabilized region; needs to manage Israel’s multi-front wars.
• Biden’s policies perceived as enabling Israel’s “genocide” weakened U.S. reputation.
• Key tasks: End wars in Gaza and Lebanon, restore U.S. influence, prevent an Iran-triggered regional escalation.

Conclusion

• Trump must avoid repeating Biden’s policies while controlling his own pro-Israel stance.
• A failure to stabilize West Asia could lead to deeper chaos and further tarnish U.S. standing in the region.

 

 

 

The Hindu Newspaper Analysis

Surviving the Messiah in America

Context

• 2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Surprising results despite polls predicting a close race.
• Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris, flipping multiple swing states and painting the map red.

Key Points from Trump’s Acceptance Speech

• MAGA Movement: Praised as the force that reinstated him to power for “healing” the nation.
• Hostility towards Media: Called some U.S. media outlets the “enemy camp” and emphasized strict immigration controls.

Broader Political Trends and Implications

• Tectonic Shift: Indicates growing preference for populism, nativism, and individualism.
• Swing States: Trump won the popular vote by ~5 million and dominated all swing states.
• “Red Shift”: Over 90% of 2,367 counties reported complete results favoring Republicans.

Economic Achievements of Biden-Harris Administration

• Unemployment: Reduced to low levels post-COVID-19.
• Wage Growth: Fast-paced; stock markets hit record highs.
• Inflation: Controlled at 2.4%, below the long-term average, despite post-pandemic recovery challenges.

Voter Perception of Trump’s Record

• Legal and Social Issues Ignored:
  • 4 criminal indictments, including sexual misconduct and insurrection charges.
  • Twice impeached but still gained significant voter support.
• Disruptor Role: Voters embraced Trump’s status as a political outsider challenging Washington elites.

Potential Policy Areas under Trump

• Immigration:
  • Promised mass deportations and family separations.
  • Anti-migrant rhetoric gained traction, despite human rights concerns.
• Corporate Tax Cuts:
  • Proposed tax cuts primarily benefiting elites like Wall Street and Silicon Valley.
  • Questionable impact on inflation and unclear benefits for blue-collar workers.

Foreign Policy and Trade Implications

• Tariffs and Isolationism:
  • Proposed 10-20% tariffs on $3 trillion worth of imports, including a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, likely triggering a trade war.
• Global Relations:
  • Israel: Netanyahu expected a free hand in West Asia.
  • Russia: Potential U.S. withdrawal could embolden Putin to force a Ukraine settlement.
  • Long-term global impacts: economic instability, human rights tolls, and weakened multilateral institutions.

Way Forward: Post-Truth World

• Contradictions in Rhetoric: Trump’s promises vs. actual voter interests reflect a post-truth era.
• Democratic Voters’ Resistance:
  • Supporters of Harris (~50%) include activists like BLM and university protesters advocating for Gaza, gun reform, and immigration policies.

Conclusion

• Despite Trump’s win, activists and reformers continue to fight for progressive causes. Their message remains steadfast: “We are still here”, preparing for 2028.