The Hindu Editorial Summary
Editorial Topic : Food Inflation and the “TOP” Trio
GS-3 Mains Exam : Economy
Revision Notes
Topic-1 : Food Inflation and the “TOP” Trio
Inflation and its Impact: Inflation is a key measure of an economy’s health, reflecting changes in living costs.
- Measuring Inflation in India: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) tracks inflation in India, with vegetables holding a 6.04% weight in the basket.
- The “TOP” Trio: Tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) have a significant influence on both food and overall inflation, despite a seemingly low 2.2% weight in the CPI basket.
- Higher Consumption in Lower Income Groups: The “TOP” trio makes up a larger portion of the consumption basket for lower income groups, impacting them more (3.6% in urban and 5% in rural areas for the bottom 5%).
- Recent Price Surge: Vegetable prices rose 15% year-on-year in FY2023-24, with significant volatility (from a -0.7% drop in June to a 37.4% rise in July).
- “TOP” Trio’s Inflationary Contribution: During July’s price surge, vegetables contributed 31.9% to headline inflation, with the “TOP” trio contributing 17.2%.
Volatility of TOP’s Prices:
- A key feature of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) is their significant price fluctuations.
- The Coefficient of Variation (CoV) – a volatility measure – of TOP’s inflation was 5.2 from Jan 2015 to March 2024.
- This is considerably higher than volatility in the overall food group, vegetable subgroup, and headline inflation.
- TOP’s high CoV highlights their sensitivity to market forces, weather variations, and supply chain disruptions.
Impact on Farmers and Consumers:
- The volatility and importance of TOP in inflation necessitate effective policy interventions and a deeper understanding of agricultural supply chains.
- Being perishable crops, TOP are susceptible to various stresses.
- Lack of Minimum Support Price (MSP) and dependence on private traders expose farmers to price volatility, despite them being net buyers of these vegetables.
Possible Solutions:
- To reduce price volatility, solutions include:
- Overhauling agricultural value chains.
- Improving cold storage facilities.
- Offering better prices to farmers to incentivize production.
- Reducing exorbitant input costs of fertilizers and pesticides.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Measures:
- The recent lifting of export bans on onions before Maharashtra elections exemplifies a reliance on short-term measures.
- Long-term solutions, as demanded by farmers, are necessary for sustainable management.
The Hindu Editorial Summary
Editorial Topic : Attributing Extreme Weather Events to Climate Change
GS-3 Mains Exam : Environment Conversion
Revision Notes
Challenges of Climate Modeling:
- Climate models struggle to accurately predict extreme weather events, particularly rainfall.
- While better at regional temperature predictions, local accuracy remains limited.
Value of Extreme Event Attribution:
- Formal cost-benefit analysis of attribution is lacking, but experts see its importance for the “Loss and Damage” (L&D) process.
- The L&D process, evolving under the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, aims to address climate change’s impact on vulnerable countries.
- Developing countries, especially those highly vulnerable, seek compensation through the L&D fund.
- Identifying “particularly vulnerable” countries is crucial (e.g., India is vulnerable but unlikely to qualify for L&D funding).
- Developed nations oppose legal accountability for extreme events due to potential lawsuits.
Case Study: Asian Heatwaves
- World Weather Attribution (WWA) recently reported a 45-fold increase in the likelihood of Asian heatwaves due to climate change.
- Understanding “rapid extreme event attribution” methods is essential.
- WWA acknowledges insufficient data, especially for rainfall extremes.
- Climate models’ limitations in capturing rainfall further complicate attribution.
Gap Between Attribution and Action:
- L&D discussions and climate law are gaining traction, but attribution exercises seem disconnected from government strategies.
- Addressing these challenges is crucial to bridge the gap and inform adaptation and mitigation efforts.
Selecting Events for Attribution:
- Scientists face challenges in choosing extreme events for attribution studies.
- The World Weather Attribution (WWA) study on Asian heatwaves used inconsistent methods across regions (daily, 3-day, or monthly temperatures).
- Natural factors (El Niño) and human activities (urbanization, deforestation) can influence heatwaves, complicating attribution.
- Unprecedented events make attribution at local scales difficult; subcontinental scales are more reliable.
Beyond the Event: Vulnerability and Impact
- The true impact of extreme events depends on:
- The severity of the event itself (hazard)
- The vulnerability of the affected population
- Their level of exposure to the event
- Financial consequences are similarly multifaceted.
Considering the Bigger Picture:
- Given these challenges, a broader look at international climate finance is necessary.
- This includes:
- Adaptation funding for developing countries
- Closing adaptation gaps
- Building adaptation capacity
- Global mitigation efforts
The Need for Practical Solutions:
- In the real world with limited resources, attribution needs a clear purpose.
- While a valuable scientific exercise in theory, cost-benefit analysis is crucial to determine its role in climate action strategies.