The Hindu Newspaper Analysis

Editorial Topic :Growth Matrix: Economic Outlook & Challenges

 GS-2 Mains Exam : Polity

Revision Notes

Economic Outlook (2024-25)

• Real GDP Growth: Estimated at 6.7% for Q1 (April-June), marking a five-quarter low. Below RBI’s projection of 7.1% for Q1 and annual expectation of 7.2%.
• Previous Year’s Growth: GDP surged by 8.2% in 2023-24, highlighting a significant slowdown in the current fiscal.

Current Economic Scenario

• Economic Momentum: The economy’s performance is underwhelming with clear signs of cooling, though base effects contribute to this trend.
• Gross Value Added (GVA) Growth: Recorded at 6.8%, slightly higher than GDP, indicating some divergence in economic indicators.

Factors Influencing the Economy

• Monsoonal Impact: Hopes were pinned on a normal monsoon to boost agricultural output, ease inflation, and improve weak rural demand and private consumption. However, monsoon performance remains a critical variable.
• Public Spending & Capital Expenditure: The government aims to ramp up capital expenditure by 17% to ₹11.11 lakh crore. However, public spending has been disrupted by the ongoing general election.
• Private Consumption: Bounced back to a six-quarter high of 7.4%, partly due to easing inflation, providing a positive sign for economic momentum.

Key Concerns

• Food Inflation: Despite easing headline inflation, food prices remain elevated, posing a risk to consumption and overall economic stability.
• Agriculture & Monsoon Dependency: Farm GVA growth has improved to a four-quarter high of 2%. However, the upcoming weeks are crucial to determine the true impact of the monsoon on agriculture and food prices.
• Interest Rate Cuts: RBI’s monetary policy members have warned that delays in interest rate cuts could result in a 1% GDP growth loss in both 2024-25 and 2025-26.

Way Forward & Conclusion

• Growth Projections: India is expected to grow at 6.5% to 7% in 2024-25, but growth may slip to 6.5% in 2025-26. The medium-term growth potential is around 6.5%, which is considered insufficient for long-term development goals.
• Need for Reforms: Gita Gopinath of the IMF emphasized the urgency of implementing meaningful economic reforms and improving institutional and judicial efficiency to enhance growth potential and create employment opportunities.
• Monsoon’s Role: A better monsoon could positively impact agriculture and inflation, but uncertainties remain, making it a critical factor for future economic performance.

 

 

The Hindu Newspaper Analysis

Editorial Topic : Hateful Remarks and Their Impact in Assam

 GS-2 Mains Exam : Polity

Revision Notes

Context

• Assam CM’s Transgressions: Assam CM, Himanta Biswa Sarma, has been accused of violating his constitutional oath by making hateful remarks against Muslims, particularly targeting the Bengali Muslim community.

Instances of Hate Speech in Assam

• Communally Sensitive Remarks: CM Himanta Biswa Sarma has repeatedly made communally charged statements, specifically targeting the State’s minority communities.
• Remarks Against “Miya Muslims”: He openly stated that he would take sides against “Miya Muslims,” a term used derogatorily for Bengali Muslims, and prevent them from moving to Upper Assam.
• Context of Law and Order: His remarks followed a discussion on the law and order situation after a gang rape of a minor in Dhing, adding communal tension to the discourse.
• Election Speech: The CM used extremely communal language to target Muslims, even invoking “Islamophobia” among Hindus, without any response from the Election Commission of India.
• Oath Violation: By making such statements, the CM has been accused of violating the constitutional oath to uphold India’s secular Constitution.

Concerns Over Hate Speech

• Need for Condemnation: There is a pressing need to condemn the CM’s explicit stance against a specific community.
• Instigation of Ethnic Violence: His statements have the potential to incite ethnic violence by endorsing demands that the minority community should leave Upper Assam, furthering hate in an already violence-prone state.
• Impact on the Poor: Assam has a history of ethnic violence, from anti-immigrant agitations to militancy, which has led to significant suffering among the poor, especially through flawed processes of identifying “foreigners.”

Way Forward

• Reconciliation Over Division: Instead of fostering division for political gain, the CM should focus on reconciliation and promoting peace and harmony within the state.
• Lessons from Myanmar: The situation in Myanmar and the plight of the Rohingya illustrate the disastrous consequences of repeated hate speech and communalism.

Conclusion

• Need for Reprimand: The Union government should reprimand individuals, including Mr. Sarma, who make divisive and hateful statements. To improve the overall well-being of the Assamese people, especially given the state’s low HDI indicators, ending hate speech and fostering a peaceful environment is crucial for development.