The Hindu Editorials Notes (21st August 2019) – Mains Sure Shot

GS-2 Mains

Question – Are the U.S. troop withdrawal in Afghanistan a major headache for India? Explain( 250 words)

Context – The U.S. deciding to pull out its forces from Afghanistan and the suicide attack at a crowded wedding hall in Kabul on Saturday night.

Background:

• Taliban ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001 before losing power to a U.S.-led coalition.
• Following the September 11 attacks in 2001 on the US, President George W. Bush blamed on Osama Bin Laden for carrying out the attack and demanded that the Taliban, who were de facto ruling the country, hand over bin Laden. But the Taliban refused.
• So on 7 October 2001 the U.S. launched ‘Operation Enduring Freedom’ in Afghanistan with the help of the United Kingdom. 
• The two were later joined by other forces, including the Northern Alliance ( a group which was in opposition when Taliban was ruling over Afghanistan). The Northern Alliance had been fighting the Taliban in the ongoing Civil War since 1996.
• By December 2001, the Taliban and their al-Qaeda allies were mostly defeated in the country, and a conference was held in Bonn where a new Afghan interim administration was formed by taking members mostly from the Northern Alliance. The new Afghan interim authorities elected Hamid Karzai to head the Afghan Interim Administration. The United Nations Security Council established the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to assist the new authority by providing security to Kabul.
• After 2002 this interim administration became the Afghan Transitional Administration. A nationwide rebuilding effort was also made following the end of the totalitarian Taliban regime.
• But the Taliban maintained its presence in the rural areas.
• Tensions escalated between 2007-2009 and this was followed by more troops being sent to Afghanistan.

What is the peace deal?

• It is the deal between the U.S. and Taliban based on which the U.S. has decided to pull out its troops from Afghanistan.
• The crux of the deal is that the U.S. is ready to pull troops from Afghanistan in return for assurances from the Taliban that they will not allow the Afghan soil to be used by transnational terrorists such as the IS and al-Qaeda. It will be left to the Taliban and the government to have their own peace talks and settle differences. Arguably, a peace deal or at least a ceasefire between the Taliban and the Kabul government would allow both sides to rechannel their resources to fighting terrorist groups.

The inherent problems:

• The Taliban’s intentions are not clear. What if the Taliban, which ran most of Afghanistan according to its puritanical interpretation of the Islamic law from 1996 to 2001, turns against Kabul once the Americans are out?
• What if the country plunges into a multi-party civil war as it did after the Soviet Union pulled out in 1989?
• Also, with the recent attack, the IS has demonstrated an ability to survive and strike in Afghanistan despite the U.S.’s heavy air campaign in the east.
• These are the unanswered problems that need to be addressed. Without addressing these concerns a sudden withdrawal can be gravely harmful.

New threat:

•  Earlier in Afghanistan it was a two-way conflict between the Taliban and the U.S. backed government. but now it is a three-way conflict in Afghanistan — the government, the Taliban insurgents and the global terrorists (mainly the IS).
• While the U.S. is striking a peace deal with the Taliban, the power dynamics is Sharple changing.
• The government in Kabul, backed by the U.S. and the international community, is fighting to preserve the existing system, which despite its faults, at least offers a semblance of democracy. But the government is a failure in ensuring safety and security of the people. The Taliban, which controls the mountainous hinterlands, wants to expand its reach to the urban centres. The IS, which has declared a province (Khorasan) in eastern Afghanistan’s Nangarhar, has emerged as the third player.
• The global terrorist groups have emerged as a new threat and the situation is getting more and more complex.

conclusion:

• It is a worry that the United States is prioritizing a military withdrawal over a complex political settlement that preserves some of the social, political, and humanitarian gains made since 2001. It remains unclear what kind of political arrangement could satisfy both Kabul and the Taliban to the extent that the latter fully abandons armed struggle.
• Ideally, the international community should have strengthened the hands of the Kabul government against all kinds of terrorists, before seeking a settlement with the insurgents. They should have helped alter the balance of power in the conflict. But it does not seem likely now. And Afghanistan is in a free fall.

Implications for India:

• A weaker American presence in the Islamic republic is widely expected to embolden local militant groups such as the Taliban. A gradual descent into a civil war is likely as various regional stakeholders try to reshape the battlefield in accordance with their own strategic priorities.
• If the Taliban strengthen its grip in Afghanistan, its influence could subsequently spread to neighboring Pakistan and Kashmir, which would be bad news for India.
• The Taliban might join forces with Pakistani militants to create safe havens for terrorists targeting India.

Way ahead:

• First and foremost, India must retire its current hostile attitude toward the Taliban so that informal talks can be held.
• Second, the huge goodwill that India has among the people of Afghanistan needs to be harnessed to ensure that the country remains friendly towards it, not a haven for hostile elements.