Published by: Oxford University Press on behalf of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)

Global Nuclear Arsenal:

Nine nuclear-armed states: US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel.
Estimated total: 12,121 nuclear weapons (as of 2024).
Potentially operational: 9,585 warheads.

Trends in Nuclear Stockpiles:

Overall Decline: The total number of nuclear warheads continues to decrease, primarily due to dismantling by the US and Russia.
Operational Warhead Stalemate: Global reductions in operational warheads have stalled and are starting to rise again.
Modernization and Expansion:
- US and Russia are modernizing their nuclear arsenals.
- China is significantly expanding its stockpile (estimated at 500 warheads, triple the 2023 figure). Some are believed to be on high alert for the first time. China may soon have an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) arsenal comparable to the US or Russia.
- India and Pakistan are also increasing their nuclear weapon stockpiles.
- UK plans to increase its stockpile.

North Korea:
- Nuclear program remains central to its national security strategy.
- May possess up to 50 nuclear weapons with potential to produce more.
Israel:
- Maintains a policy of “nuclear ambiguity” regarding the size of its arsenal, creating uncertainty.

Grew to an estimated 172 warheads in 2024, surpassing Pakistan’s stockpile of 170.
Focuses on strengthening its nuclear triad (land, air, sea-based delivery systems).
Actively developing long-range missiles and a nuclear-powered submarine fleet.

Founded in 1966, SIPRI is an independent institute dedicated to researching conflict, armaments, and disarmament.
Provides data, analysis, and recommendations to policymakers, researchers, and the public.
Funded primarily by the Swedish government with additional support from other organizations.

Refers to the elimination or reduction of weapons, often through bilateral or unilateral agreements.

Geopolitical Tensions: Countries are hesitant to disarm if they perceive threats from nuclear-armed adversaries.
Transparency: Verifying compliance with disarmament treaties is difficult.
Technological Advancements: New and sophisticated nuclear weapons complicate disarmament efforts.
Strategic Stability Concerns: Nations view nuclear weapons as crucial for national security, making them wary of full disarmament.
Economic and Strategic Costs: Dismantling nuclear weapons and managing fissile materials is expensive and complex.
Non-Proliferation Concerns: Disarmament by some states could incentivize others to acquire nuclear weapons.

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) (1968):
- Aims to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and promote disarmament.
- Classifies countries as either Nuclear-Weapon States (NWS) or Non-Nuclear-Weapon States (NNWS).
- NWS are obligated to pursue disarmament negotiations in good faith.
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) (2017):
- Prohibits development, testing, and use of nuclear weapons.
- A significant step towards disarmament, but not signed by nuclear-armed states.
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) (1996):
- Bans all nuclear explosions for military and civilian purposes.
- Not yet in force as ratification by all nuclear-armed states is required.
Outer Space Treaty (1967):
- Prohibits placing weapons of mass destruction in outer space.
- All known nuclear powers are parties to this treaty.