Daily Hot Topic

Economic Impact of Climate Change: Study in Nature Journal (2024)

GS-3 Mains 

Global Economic Loss:

  • 19% permanent average reduction in global incomes by 2050 due to climate change (compared to a world without climate change).
  • Largest losses in lower-latitude countries (South Asia & Africa) despite low emissions and income.

Economic Damages:

  • $38 trillion annually by 2049 (2005 international dollars) under a moderate emissions scenario.
  • Range of economic damages: $19 trillion – $59 trillion.
  • 6 times the cost of mitigation measures to limit warming below 2°C by 2050.

Study Methodology:

  • Analyzed climate & income data from 1600 regions over 40 years.
  • Predicted damages from changes in temperature & precipitation (including daily variability, total precipitation, wet days, extreme rainfall).
  • Considered factors impacting: labor & agricultural productivity, human health, flood damages.

Key Findings:

  • Average annual temperature increase is the biggest factor (13% income reduction).
  • Other factors (temperature variability, precipitation) contribute 6% income reduction.
  • Economic damages are already locked-in due to historical emissions.
  • Decisions on future emissions will impact damages after 2049.

Income Reduction by Region:

  • North America & Europe: 11% (median)
  • South Asia & Africa: 22% (median)
  • Poorest countries: 8.9% points greater than richest countries.
  • Low emitters: 6.9% points greater than high emitters.

Mitigation vs. Damages:

  • Mitigation cost by 2050: $6 trillion (based on IPCC models).
  • Damages are significantly higher than mitigation costs.
  • Net benefits of mitigation will emerge only after mid-century.

Underestimation of Climate Impacts:

  • Climate models might underestimate future changes in temperature variability and extreme precipitation.
  • True impacts from these variables could be even larger.

Source : https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/climate-change/by-2050-the-world-will-lose-38-000-000-000-000-to-climate-change-dragging-down-average-income-by-19–95683

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *