Concerns regarding Trump’s Return
- Implications for Eurasian Geopolitics
- Trump’s “America First” policies and Republican opposition to foreign commitments could reshape Eurasian geopolitics.
- Any American military retrenchment from Eurasia would alter the balance of power unfavorably for India.
- Eurasia without American Security Guarantee
- Russia and China could exploit divisions among US allies in Eurasia.
- A nightmare scenario for Russia and China’s neighbors.
- Unipolar Asia and India
- India seeks to avoid a unipolar Asia dominated by China.
- Prefers a multipolar order in Eurasia.
- Apprehension against Trump
- Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and impulsive character cause concern.
- Allies fear less restraint and potential damage to long-standing US alliances.
- Trump’s Demands for Payment
- Allies must contribute more to shared security.
- Trump’s view resonates with a significant section of the Republican Party.
- Economic Repercussions
- Trump rejects the assumption of non-reciprocal access to the US market.
- Targets China and allies with tariffs.
- Threatens further tariffs on imports into the US.
Why These Developments Should Concern India
- Security Front
- India benefits from the US seeking capable partners for regional security.
- India’s rise in the Eurasian security hierarchy hinges on its military capabilities and willingness to contribute to collective defense.
- Economic Front
- India’s protectionist policies have clashed with Trump’s views.
- Trade negotiations with the Trump Administration were unsuccessful.
- India-US trade and technology ties hold promise.
- Delhi needs a new framework for trade cooperation with Washington.
Conclusion
- Trump’s potential return worries US allies.
- India is relatively well-positioned on the security front but faces challenges in economic cooperation with the US.
- A new framework may be necessary for economic and trade relations between India and the US.
India’s Recent Trade Talks and Agreements
- Overview
- Modi government actively pursuing trade agreements.
- Recent agreements with Australia, UAE, ongoing talks with UK and EU, and signing with EFTA.
- Benefits from EFTA Agreement
- Aims to increase FDI into India by $50 billion within 10 years, creating one million direct jobs.
- EFTA investment in 2022 was $10.7 billion.
- Switzerland is India’s largest trading partner in EFTA.
- Impact on Trade with EFTA
- Reduction in tariffs for EFTA nations, elimination of duties on most industrial goods.
- India offers tariff elimination on 82.7% of its lines, covering 95.3% of EFTA’s exports.
- Agricultural items excluded from the deal.
- EFTA offers 100% market access for non-agri products.
- Services sector inclusion, especially in IT, facilitates movement of skilled personnel.
Way Forward for India
- Achieving Export Targets
- Ambitious target of $2 trillion in exports by 2030.
- Policy actions needed: lowering tariffs, entering deeper FTAs while safeguarding interests.
- Ensuring Benefits
- Measures needed to ensure full benefits from trade agreements.
- Critical for India’s development trajectory.
Conclusion
- EFTA pact signifies greater openness and readiness for broader, deeper agreements.
- Sets a benchmark for other nations in trade deals with India.
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